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1/5/2015 0 Comments

Turmoil In Europe

The Greek elections have caused the markets to start the first full week of the new year on a down trend. While many analysts and commentators are already dusting off the "Grexit" talk and yields are rising on Greek debt. What is suprising is the relative calm seen by Spanish and Italian debt in the same time frame. Seeing yields drop as QE is built up by Draghi and the news is a likely answer to the drop in bond yields but there has to be more to it. To price out Greece from the looming implementation of asset purchases but include Spain and Italy, with all their own political dysfunctions, creates opposing views. If Greece was to default on its debt as the far left warns the core countries then a game of chicken will ensue. Should core countries give leway to Greece, surely Spanish and Italian people will want the same deal. Should the core kick them from the Euro, individual countries will start to be prices more as individuals again despite Draghi's talk. In either case there shouldn't be this much negative correlation between the yields. Perhaps a pair trade opportunity is upon us.

Italian 10yr
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GBTPGR10:IND

Greek 10yr
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGGB10YR:IND
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