10/17/2013 0 Comments
Treasuries rally... for now
The 10 yr has seen a pullback since the 3% yield reached at the height of the tapering concerns. After today it looks like bonds are very much back in vogue on the back of a debt talk deal and the thought that the 16 day government shutdown will cause enough economic harm to prompt the Fed to delay tapering, or even add to QE. This bond rally may go on for a few days or even weeks, but it will not last, the Fed will still rely on the data to determine the tapering time line, and the fact that this whole process could occur again in the beginning of February will not instill too much confidence in US Treasuries. The US has started a process that will ultimately cause the rest of the world to look for alternatives to store their money (though currently there aren't other options). This will cause the markets to looks solely on the economic data to drive the prospect of QE, without that, there are no more reasons for bonds to be in demand like they have in the past.
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