OPEC meets but fundamentals reign

Looking at the current trend in oil it seems that a move back to the lows of the year are a lot less likely. Having moved up 80% from the lows a lot of the oil industry players have seen higher share prices and tightening spreads in the bond markets. While still bullish on the longer term prospects of oil, it could be a good time to take some profits from the more aggressive oil plays in a portfolio or hedge to some degree.
 
The OPEC meeting today is going to show some clues to what the group is thinking but there is little action that is expected. The positions of the countries seem to be entrenched with Saudi Arabia and Iran in a market share dispute and some of the smaller countries like Venezuela and Nigeria in turmoil from lower prices. What is more concerning is the fact that temporary supply disruptions in Canada, Nigeria, and slowing production in Iraq have caused the supply and demand situation to balance out, albeit temporarily. Once these changes to the supply side dissipate you could see some resistance to the upward moves in oil prices. From a stock perspective, anything dividend paying should be held onto because the elevated price will help to ensure a steady payment cycle (perhaps some covered calls would be a good choice for them). Any outright plays in the move in oil prices has most likely seen a good run and should have profits taken while looking for a better entry point in the future.​

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