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11/30/2014 0 Comments

Oil Slides Again


Oil prices are dropping again as China's manufacturing PMI came in lower than forecast. The previous weeks Opec meeting mixed with light volume could also see renewed selling throughout the beginning of the week as traders return. short, medium, and long term factors are aligned to create this supply glut and prices of oil and oil companies have reacted to it. But like always in these types of scenarios there could be a far from equilibrium  moment that occurs as too many participants are short or increase short positions as others confirm the bias. This trend will continue so long as traders and investors feel it will be untested. I feel the next test for this trend will have to come from oil producers announcing cuts to oil production and slashing capital expenditures going forward. This news of near term halts in production and depressed projections of supply in the long term could test the mass selling of oil companies and possibly put a floor in the decline of crude. The question is who will blink first and to what degree will the entire industry listen (we already know OPEC is not budging). I feel that the only other option to US cutting back on production is the OPEC countries getting to a point where the cartel cannot reach a consensus and certain countries start to break from the ranks out of their own political instability from growing budgets deficits.
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