With the Fed expected to remove the 'patient' portion of the language at the end of today's meeting the markets are expecting rates to be increased in the next few meetings. The markets will become volatile, especially emerging markets, and the Dollar is likely to rise. one of the factors to look at in the currency market is what, if anything will be a play against the dollar's rise. For this I would look to the Yen.
The BOJ governors are already predicting a short bout back into deflation, and while they deem that short term, the 2% goal is still a long way off given cheaper oil (which will only get cheaper if the Dollar continues to rise) and stagnant wages relative to the cost of living. While an interest rate increase will increase the amount you make keeping money in dollars the stagnating of the market should the cost of capital significantly rise above the rate of real (after inflation) growth you will see companies reluctant to hire and expand their businesses. This could result in a slowdown in the US economy that could rattle stock markets and lengthen the time the Fed takes for more hikes. Meanwhile Japan which is already struggling to keep inflation up in a slowing global market, could see price cuts strengthen the currency as the policies of Abe start to loose their merits. This makes for a good opportunity to look into a long Yen position against the dollar (as in the FXY ETF) as a way to diversify out of the dollar exposure you have through US stocks. A good start to the buying opportunity could come from the Fed as early as today.
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June 2020
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