Amid the Italian elections and other geopolitical factors that are causing investors to run towards the dollar, there is some potential for good news coming out of Europe. First there is the news that Brussels will shortly be unveiling a plan to create sovereign bond-backed securities. While the acceptance among all countries will be a key factor in the success of the plan becoming reality, the rollout will show if the Euro countries will be ready to start talks about a tighter monetary union.
This leads into June where a summit will take place to reform the union. Much of this will be about Security, migration, and innovation, but also include Jobs, and long term budgets. It will be important to see how the countries come together on all of these issues. Showing a willingness to grow tighter together or continue to put their countries first. This will be important in the bond market in terms of spreads as fears of a slowdown start to form. During the first Eurozone crisis the political will was there for countries to make decisions that saved the union. This time the political landscape in the southern countries and nationalism exacerbated by migration in the north, will not make a second round of ad hoc measures works as well. Unity needs to start before the cracks start to form.
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June 2020
CategoriesAll Chinese Debt Commodities European Disunity Inflation Policy US Earnings |