The Fed has spoken and the markets have reacted accordingly. The anticipation led to very little in terms on volatility on the news, but now that the month of Central Bank moves is over we can look at 2016. With the US being the lone wolf in increasing rates while other central banks are easing, and the Bank of China has opened their currency to lower moves, it will be important to keep in mind the implications of the strong dollar on stocks, commodities, and currencies.
You can almost split the countries under pressure to weaken and those who can sit tight by their trading partners. European countries not in the Euro will be under pressure by cheaper goods from outside strangling domestic competition as well as less exports. China is no doubt trying to stem the decline in manufacturing by having a weaker currency to the ever rising dollar. This will be a mixed bag for countries like Australia and New Zealand where raw materials that China would buy for manufacturing are going to be more expensive in dollar terms.
As the year progresses the moves over the past month with create trends that may not be fully developed in a light trading month. I would expect a calming of some runaway equities in the US as well as more testing of the liquidity in the bond markets. In currencies there will be less subtlety in measures to keep trade competitive.
Markets seem to be taking Draghi’s initial words as a bit more bullish then they were hoping. The Euro has appreciated as Yields on Bunds increased as well. This could be the start of volatility in the EUR/USD pair as the Fed is looking to reassure investors that the rate hike will not be the start of a pre-determined chain of increases and the dependency of data will dictate how many more increases we will see in 2016.