The Bank of Japan didn't rock the currency or the markets with its policy. The bank stated that their stance on easing will be dependent on the 2% inflation target being hit. They are looking to have the range in which they allow bond yields to move (currently floored at 0%), this will give some insights into the Bank's willingness to let rates rise when they feel comfortable with the direction inflation is heading.
In Europe we saw the Pound increase against the dollar as CPI came out better than estimated. The Bank of England is more on the fence with where policy is headed, with bullish indicators pointing to policy moving towards tightening, while the members are concerned about the looming Brexit implications.
This is a good reflection of the data dependency and tightening bias the markets are placing on it. This s a small example of a larger trend playing out, where investors are looking for yield as concerns arise over signs of weakness globally. Any indicators of a strong economy or higher inflation will see those respective currencies increase on rate anticipation.
9/18/2018 0 Comments
What matters from the BOJ meeting
The Bank of Japan is having an interest rate meeting Tuesday morning Tokyo time. This is preceded by a press conference later on. There is no expectations of actions from this meeting but it will be worth taking note to determine the language of the central bank of how it is positioning along side other banks.
Currently the US is the only bank with a focus on tightening, but the ECB isn't too far behind the US. With strong economic indicators in the Eurozone, the ECB will be cutting their stimulus another 15 billion a month and ending the program all together by the end of the year. The bank of England is expecting to see growth pick up in the coming year. The bank is holding off on any rate increases until more is seen from the Brexit talks. A good scenario in Brexit will see the bank become more bullish and a bad scenario could see a drop in the pound and more inflation imported. These situations will both lead to the bank having a hawkish stance.
Japan is one of the last central banks to not shift towards a tightening policy, or make any indications they think they will have to soon. This will be important to watch to determine how the markets will react to a combination of tightening across major currencies. The general rise in interest rates across the globe could cause a re pricing in assets, especially in the US where capital flows have increased over the past couple of years on the back of a stronger Dollar, higher rates, and a strong (but not too strong) economy.
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