The markets are experiencing downward pressure in Asia that is sure to flow into the US by morning. The US has laid out more tariffs to put in place after China retaliated to the first set of tariffs that took effect last Friday. This back and forth will not end well, specifically for the US as they import more from China than China does from the US. The news talks a lot about the trad spat affecting the US economy and there are legitimate concerns as the trade war heats up. It is important to look at China as well and the measures they will have to take to keep the economy on stable footing.
As of now we are seeing the currency weaken and the stock market sell off to some degree. But the important thing to look out for is instability in the financial and property markets. Bad signs in these sectors will show there could be coming problems in the debt market possibly starting a crisis where the government will have to step in.
In a light week for the US a lot of data that will be impacting the current economic story will be coming out. The market movements after quarter end, during a holiday week, will be difficult to get any meaning from. Some of the important takeaways for the broader narrative are as follows:
Oil supply: As President Trump tweets that Saudi Arabia is going to increase output by 'up to 2 million barrels' a day, the price of oils is going to be squarely in focus. For this week we have Thursday and Friday oil inventory and rig counts respectively. This will be important to see how much of the US is ramping up production to fill the demand left from Iran and Venezuela having a decrease in output. Should Saudi Arabia increase output at the same time as US companies try to ramp up production, we could see oil come off its highs.
FOMC minutes: The minutes to the Fed meeting will help to solidify the perception of the US continuing to increase rates at a time that other countries are struggling to get their economies to a level where they can stop stimulus and increase rates. Economic news out of the US seems to support this, the only surprises that could come out of the minutes would be worries on trade or global growth. This could link the political and macro environment closer to future rate expectations.
Jobs data: The actual economic indications of the US economy will be important because of the US currently being an outlier. In order for the markets to keep with the notion that the US is strengthening despite the global markets, the data will have to continue to support that assumption. Should this not occur, many of the correlations we are seeing could start to break down.
Political headlines: Finally the political headlines out of Europe, with Germany's coalition back in crisis, and the US rhetoric on trade wars; there is no doubt to be some chop this week. These issues have been spooking investors in the equity markets and currencies to an extent, but the bond market is still sticking with the broader story that the above data points will be a factor in.