7/8/2014 0 Comments Markets and the real economyMarkets are down sharply at the start of the day after a drop yesterday. The decline started before the JOLTS job openings, which just seemed to make matters worse. Should these losses persist there will no doubt be renewed buying however how much is enough? Consumer prices are up, food prices are up, and wages are at levels from 2009. Markets seem to be going up from the high levels of liquidity support from the Fed banks across the globe more than economic fundamentals. This can go on for some time, but from a macro perspective an over performing market will funnel too many resources (materials, human capital, money, and credit) into the markets leaving less to the recovery. The fact that wages have been kept down is good for companies and their balance sheets but will leave a hole that will eventually need to be filled when the average worker is no longer buying. Once this occurs there will have to be a re pricing of the markets and their lofty expectations, not to mention a removal of cash (or leverage) from the markets as the prospect of excess gains dry up. This could lead to a variety of problems ranging from illiquid securities held in ‘liquid’ ETFs to central banks policies being put into question.
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