3/23/2020 0 Comments
Market Turmoil and Fiscal Stimulus
The Fed is now looking at unlimited purchases as a way to quell the markets, today it had some effect on moving indices in the US positive but the lack of a deal from Congress superseded any monetary news that came out. This is an important factor to note. This is part of a broader theme that monetary policy in the US and globally is not able to counter the impact the corona virus has on the economy. This makes sense since the issues isn't stemming from a financial issue, but is directly causing one.
The only viable way to get the markets on track is to have more countries increase fiscal stimulus to help small businesses and people cover through this time period without the threat of forced deleveraging or extreme savings. This will have to take part in various ways, some controversial, including supplying credit to large companies that are directly affected by the travel bans, direct payments to individuals out of work in the service economy, and ways to extend or lower the costs of debt all around.
The fear is that the last of the leveraging cycles could be coming to an end, but the conditions are hitting a new lower bound giving the developed world more ability to borrow. This will significantly affect longer term growth prospects, but should make the recovery more acute in nature. The longer term prospects for an investor will depend a lot on how this process plays out.
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