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3/12/2014 0 Comments Australian EmploymentThe Australian employment numbers came out better than expectations, on all accounts. This could be a good sign given how fears coming out of China caused the demand for copper (and the price) to drop. Perhaps this will provide some comfort in getting back into the Australian dollar for currency traders (I like and am short the EUR/AUD pair). Longer term the weakening of the yuan could spur more exports and bring back the resource intensive industries, or at least stabilize them, for the medium term. I would still watch Chinese lending for more signs of trouble as debt levels and debt quality will need to be watched closely for the viability of the Australian currency short of structural reforms in the economy. Until the Australian economy can re-diversify after the commodities boom of the past decade, you will still have to look to China for the health of the region.
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3/2/2014 1 Comment Unrest In UkraineThe invasion of Crimea by the Russians has put unrest back into the markets. Futures are off 1% and commodities such as natural gas and gold are up. This risk off scenario could lead to opportunities as liquid, good performing assets will take a hit first and emerging markets will no doubt follow. I will be taking look at this as an opportunity, one that may require patience. Developments could come from this in either direction and a position should be taken with the knowledge that conditions could turn quickly. A good example of this are Russian shares themselves. While already cheap before the Ukrainian crisis and have proved they can get cheaper.
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June 2020
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